The arbitrary politics

The recent decisions of the Federal-State Conference have set out the goal of increasing the vaccination rate and, in return, of intervening extensively in fundamental rights. 80 Percent of adults are to be “animated” to vaccination. Now, however, the RKI had to admit that it has no reliable data on the vaccination rate. Perhaps even today more than 80 percent of adults could already be vaccinated, which would make the already questionable “justification” for the announced measures, which are aimed primarily at unvaccinated, passé. After the false data on intensive care bed occupancy and the arbitrary alignment of measures with the incidence, this is another scandalous case in which the government interferes with fundamental rights on the basis of false or questionable data and accepts collateral damage. There is pure arbitrariness.

According to the official data of the Digital Vaccination Monitoring (DMI) of the Robert Koch Institute, the current vaccination rate for at least once vaccinated 18-to 59 - year-olds is 59 percent. This is the value from which the government derives a “low vaccination readiness”, which it now wants to increase by massive interventions at the expense of the unvaccinated. The colleague Norbert Häring speaks in this context quite rightly of a “vaccination obligation for the poorer third of the population”. But this number is wrong. Meanwhile even the RKI admits that the vaccination rate is " systematically too low." There are two reasons why you can only shake your head.

On the one hand, vaccination with Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine is not reported in the reporting system as a first, but as a two-vaccination. Unlike the other vaccines, the vaccine from Johnson and Johnson gets by with vaccination. Seen in this way, the classification as a two-inoculation is not even completely wrong. However, if the rate for primary vaccination is used exclusively as an indicator of vaccination readiness, all vaccinations with this vaccine fall under the table due to the system. And we are talking about more than four million doses of vaccine, which – since one dose per vaccine is sufficient – also corresponds to more than four million people. With a total of 46 million fully vaccinated, this is almost 10 percent. This is a massive distortion of the numbers.

Equally incomprehensible is the second reason. According to the RKI, only “about half” of company doctors are connected to the web application that evaluates the figures for digital vaccination monitoring. The official vaccination data of the RKI included 4.8 million doses vaccinated by company doctors. This means that (“about half”), depending on the use of the vaccine, between 2.4 and 4.8 million primary vaccinations were not recorded by the system at all. And since the majority of people vaccinated by company doctors are likely to belong to the age group between 18 and 59, this is also a very massive data breach, which leads to incorrect results regarding the “vaccination readiness”.

These systemic errors are well known to the RKI. However, they became an error that can no longer be ignored only now after the evaluation of a demoscopic survey carried out in parallel, the vaccination quota monitoring Covimo. It was “surprising” that 79 percent of respondents in the mentioned age group said they had already been vaccinated at least once. Of course, such surveys always have a certain range of errors. But the difference between 79 percent (Covimo) and 59 percent (official number of the vaccination dashboard) is simply too great to explain it with a survey error. The official data is incorrect. That’s a fact. The actual vaccination rate is simply unknown. In the 18-59 age group, it will be somewhere between 59 percent and 79 percent, and since it is in the over-60 age group, where official data are less error-prone, at least 85 percent, it is even likely that it has already exceeded the “target” of 80 percent for the adult population as a whole. Measures to increase “vaccination readiness” are therefore not only unnecessary, but also completely disproportionate.

The special report of the RKI also states that the vaccination monitoring survey showed that 91.6 percent of the population was either ready to vaccinate or had already been vaccinated. “The Covid-19 vaccination readiness of the population is at a high level,” according to the RKI authors. That’s amazing. Do we not hear from the media and politics day in and day out that the opposite is true? And that one must now increase with hard measures exactly the readiness, which is already high according to the federal authority RKI?

It’s hopeless. Politics acts according to pure arbitrariness and the media are not a corrective here, but on the contrary a reinforcing factor. The already dramatic division of society is tolerated and every effort is made to push the division even further. That’s easy. If you can incite the vast majority of the vaccinated against the minority of the unvaccinated, you yourself will not be the focus of criticism so quickly.

And do you know what is the most “beautiful thing about these systematic errors” in the vaccination rate? They will balance out sooner or later. At the latest when every company doctor has settled the cost of the vaccinations and the two-vaccination rate exceeds the initial vaccination rate, the policy will be able to announce with pride the full success of its measures to increase vaccination readiness. Because if we already have a real vaccination rate of around 80 percent today, the success of the policy is guaranteed, even if not a single unvaccinated person should be convinced by the harassment. And the “most beautiful thing” about this whole maneuver is that the errors in the survey system can certainly be eliminated before the elections. Then, as if by magic, the official vaccination rate will rise before Election Sunday, and politicians and editorialists will pat each other on the shoulders … leaving a deeply divided society. Everything done right. All done wrong. Depending on your perspective.