There will be no peace again in 2021

There will be no peace in 2021

Times are changing, currently faster than ever. Learning from history is therefore not always the right way to solve a Problem. But there are constants that have been recurring for 2000 years. One of the clearest and most important is this: where in a country, a people, in a larger community internal problems arise, especially when society is divided, an external threat – the existence of an external enemy – “helps” to weld people together internally, in their own country.

This is exactly the Situation we have today. American society is more divided than ever since the civil wars of 1861 to 1865, the so-called secession war. This time, however, the division does not separate the south from the north; this time it passes through the middle of the individual states, through many cities and larger municipalities. The split between Democrats and Republicans often goes right through the middle of the individual family. The topic of “division” is reflected hundreds of times in countless media reports. However, anyone who observes above all the discussions and decisions of the two Houses of Congress can see it: both houses try to come together again with a common attitude in foreign policy – towards common “enemies”. The most recent example: the completion of “Nord Stream 2”, the Pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Germany. The resolutions to prevent this project with harsh sanctions were passed in the US Congress, in the Senate as well as in the House of Representatives, on a bipartisan basis. The isolationists and the universalists are building up Russia as a common enemy to come together at home.

A new danger: the " Deal"

There have been politicians for many years who, when asked how they would run a state, give the answer: “the way I run a company as a Manager.“Christoph Blocher, for example, had already said this in 2011 when he had to answer this question at a major Event at the Zurich Schauspielhaus. It was reserved for Jean-Claude Juncker, then president of the European Commission, to draw his attention to this: “a company can lay off employees who have become permanently ill or otherwise incapacitated. However, a state remains responsible for its citizens even when they can no longer do anything.”

Donald Trump received many advance laurels in his election as US President. It was trusted that the successful Business man would also succeed as president of a state with his experience of making good “Deals”. Trump then actually started to introduce his style of” Deals " into politics. The most recent examples of his"Deal” policy are the newly established diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates UAE and those between Israel and Morocco. In both" Deals " there are clear losers: the first is the Palestinians who lose the support of the Arab Emirates, the second is the Sahraouis in Western Sahara, who were dropped by the US despite UN peace talks.

In the past, negotiations were looking for compromises. A compromise includes concessions on both sides. Today “Deals” are made, with advantages of both sides but the price paid for it third parties. That’s the difference!

Germany’s politics are dangerous

Germany is disturbed by the fact that semiconductor technology in Europe lags behind that in the USA and China by ten or more years and that Germany’s “digital sovereignty” is therefore at risk. It has already begun to subsidise this industry in the billions. Conversely, politically relevant media bosses such as Josef Joffe from der “Zeit” or Mathias Döpfner from Springer strongly advocate moving even closer to the US militarily. The German Defence Minister / Primary School pupil Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer of the CDU and even the head of the Greens, Annalena Baerbock, plead for a stronger militarization. AKK wants even in the indo-Pacific region in the future also militarily more"say".

Militarily closer to the US and technologically more “sovereignty”, can this strange combination be expected to be good?

Open Questions

On October 12, 1957, the Soviet KGB Agent Bogdan Staschinski killed the exiled Ukrainian writer Lev Rebet in Munich and two years later, on October 15, 1959, the Ukrainian Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera, who was protected by Germany, with a special weapon. At the same time, in America, the CIA has spent millions of Dollars to develop more effective methods to discreetly kill and eliminate people. But more than sixty years later, the Russian Secret Service is said to have tried three times unsuccessfully to assassinate Alexei Navalny, using a poison that had been developed for the mass destruction of entire armies?

“If you believe it, you pay the price,” is an old saying in Switzerland. And the fact that Navalny, who as an opposition activist in Russia never had the political success he wanted, is now four months after his “Fall” also supposed to have persuaded a Russian intelligence agent to take a telephone call from an unknown person and tell him the story of the attack in detail, makes the Satire perfect. The real intelligence specialists, including the former head of the Czech military intelligence service Andor Šándor,-accustomed to repelling Russian espionage – can only laugh. Even publicly.

“The Novichok Saga – The Navalny case-has a real “Christmas” resolution. The Russian opposition leader is on the phone from Germany to his murderer from the FBS, who, Assuming to speak to his boss, tells him how everything went. He has no Problem talking with his unsecured phone about all the Details of the murderous action with his “superior”, whose voice he easily confuses with Navalny. Another comment is unnecessary …”

In 2018, saudi Arabian diplomats were allowed to kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who lives abroad, in their embassy in Istanbul. Reaction in Germany: zero. A year ago, the Americans were allowed to shoot down the Iranian politician Qasem Soleimani with drones in Iraq. Reaction in Germany: zero. A few weeks ago, the Israeli Mossad in Iran was allowed to kill the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fachrisadeh on the open road. Reaction in Germany: zero. In no case were there any sanctions. But the alleged attack on the Russian Alexei Navalny in Russia has been an issue for months not only for Germany, but even for NATO, and it has led to new massive sanctions against Russia.

What is behind this new policy of Germany?

The cause of the new policy of the Federal Republic of Germany to upgrade again is not easy to recognize. Is Germany under increased pressure from the USA? Perhaps the announced withdrawal of 10,000 of the 34,000 US soldiers currently stationed in Germany from Germany is prompting the German government to show itself even more hostile to Russia in order to make the US more Germany-friendly? That is conceivable. However, the USA in Germany is already allowed to do everything they want, they store atomic bombs and operate relay stations for drone use in the Middle East.

Or is the reason for more and more Russian hatred perhaps the German arms industry, which has too few orders and needs war mood for new orders? In March 2020, the stock market price of the German arms manufacturer “Rheinmetall” actually fell to less than half of its peak value in 2019 (from 117.15 to 53.74). Apparently, investors were afraid that the Covid-19 pandemic might dampen politicians ' belligerence. But since then, the price has risen again significantly, and with a turnover of over 6 billion euros, the arms company “Rheinmetall” is not so economically relevant for Germany.

As a possible cause for the increasing hostility to Russia, there remains the option of finally showing the Russians who is stronger after the decisive German defeats in Stalingrad and Kursk in 1943. So rising revanchism? This third variant, revanchism against Russia, would be the saddest, but it cannot be ruled out. As the tank soldier Ivan Naidyanov, the White Tiger, says in the Russian Film “the White Tiger”, metaphorically for the recurring Russian hatred of Europeans: “he will wait twenty years, fifty, maybe even a hundred. Then he will crawl out again … " since the end of the Second World War it is now 75 years …

Which brings us back to history. The so-called blank cheque, which the German Emperor Wilhelm II gave to Austria-Hungary on 5 July 1914, was the green light for Austria’s attack on Serbia, which led to the first World War. A few years later, in April 1917, the Transport of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin in a “sealed car” from exile in Switzerland to St. Petersburg was to help lead Russia through the Revolution into even more internal problems and thus weaken it as an enemy of war. And already in 1925 Adolf Hitler in his book “Mein Kampf” again propagated to get “land” for Germany in Russia. History is not always “History” in the sense of: may be checked off.

Optimism is always welcome

It is always nice when people start a new year with optimism. This time, however, it is important to be particularly attentive and careful. The polarised society in the USA and elsewhere, the new political style of making” Deals " at the expense of third parties, and the increasing mood-making in Germany against Russia are signals that must be taken seriously.