Juan Guaida’s attempt, with Western support, to instigate a color revolution in Venezuela failed in 2019. His great words and announcements were followed by one defeat after another. He failed because of a thinking determined by Western ideals and the inability to realistically assess the social and political balance of power in Venezuela itself.
It was not because of the support from the values vest that it did not succeed. There, one would have liked to have done even more for Guaida, if he himself had been able to create the conditions for a coup in Venezuela. How alien his thinking was was most evident in his attempts to persuade the military to stage a coup against Maduro.
Guaid’s assessments of the situation were beautifully coloured and theoretical, his plans stumbling. His initial successes in mobilizing the masses in Caracas created a deceptive image of strength. He himself, as well as his Western supporters, fell victim to this illusion. Both believed that, following the pattern of the color revolutions that had taken place so far, it was enough to bring a few tens of thousands onto the streets to overthrow a system.
But the sacrifice of his largely wealthy followers was not so great that they wanted to trade the armed popular uprising in favor of their own privileges. Once again, it became apparent that the airy desires and intellectual omnipotence fantasies of a university graduate are something other than the weight of reality.
This became abundantly clear at the border bridge with Colombia, where Guaida had ordered the masses who had cheered him on in Caracas. They were supposed to bring aid containers from the United States into the country in support of the poor of Venezuela, a Trojan horse of the vest of values that had brought Venezuela into this situation through its sanctions. This should be the prelude to the overthrow of Maduro. But the masses did not come. They would rather stay in Caracas than risk their lives.
When he had not succeeded in mobilizing the population, Guaida seriously believed that the military would now help him out of trouble in his desperation. Although parts of the army would certainly have been persuaded to overthrow under other circumstances, they were realistic enough to recognize that Guaida was a blender. Military personnel cannot afford wishful thinking. They assess the situation according to the balance of power and real circumstances. The military did not heed its calls for overthrow.
The bus driver Maduro, with whom the media of the values west wanted to question the competence of the Venezuelan prime minister, triumphed over the university graduate Guaida. In the following years, this sank more and more into insignificance. Especially in Europe, it was recognized that one had bet on a lame Gaul. It was then necessary to find that the real power in Venezuela lay with Maduro.
For the Us, a retreat from Maduro was out of the question. In January 2020, for example, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, at a meeting with his British counterpart Dominic Raab in Bogogo, Colombia, declared that “the United States would continue to work to oust Maduro from office.”
For the US, Venezuela has a different meaning than for the Europeans. It is on its own doorstep and in a region of the world that has always been seen as its own backyard, where Washington determines order. The United States held firm on Guaida, not least because of the lack of alternatives to its teased model student.
But Guaida is increasingly becoming a burden. In May 2020, his involvement in a stupidly planned coup attempt, which was to be carried out by a few hundred mercenaries and had been supported by Washington, was revealed. Although Washington denied its own involvement, as did Guaidé itself, “traces can be traced back to the apartment of Guaid’s advisers in Florida”.
The US was forced to publicly distance itself from the conspirators and Guaida. The opposition in Venezuela “for its part has been in need of explanation as a a means of the commando action.” Their prestige and guaid’s reputation will surely have suffered if they ally themselves with the foreign forces, which are largely responsible for the suffering in Venezuela through their sanctions and economic war.
But it has also increased tensions within the opposition, further diminishing their prospects for political success. Perhaps this is the reason why, despite all his violations of the law, treason and attempts to overthrow him, Guaida is still at large. “This has reduced the political risk of arresting Guaid’s. But the simple bus driver Maduro proves to be the wiser strategist. Because no one is doing more harm to the opposition in the country than Guaidé himself.
Loss of meaning
As a result, europeans in particular tried to keep Guidodo at a distance in order to initiate a dialogue between Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition. Apparently, they have realized that the former hero of the Value West is unfit to bring about change in Venezuela. “None of his promises could be fulfilled by Guaid, all hopes were dashed. Guaidi does not have the power to change Venezuela”.
How quickly its star had faded in Venezuela itself was demonstrated by the controversy over the presidency in the National Assembly in January 2020, which had been declared by the Values West as “another battleground of the power struggle between the Maduro regime and the opposition.” “The opposition’s hope that the attack on the last democratic institution would mobilize the population again had not been fulfilled. Only a few hundred Venezuelans responded to guaid’s call at the weekend.
Adding to his personal loss of importance in Venezuela itself was his inability to subordinate his personal interests to political interests in the international context. He torpedoed European plans to “continue the dialogue between the government and the opposition, which was initiated in 2019. … Guaidé does not want to know about it at the moment”.
How much the messiah of the vest of values, who wanted to bring freedom to Venezuela, lost sight of reality was shown by the dispute over the Venezuelan gold stored in the Bank of England. In addition to Western sanctions, the people of Venezuela are suffering from the Corona epidemic. “Drugs are usually only available on the overpriced black market.”
“In order to finance the emergency measures against the epidemic and to buy medicine and food,” the Central Bank of Venezuela wanted to sell its own gold worth 1 billion dollars. The British High Court has refused to hand over the gold. For him, Guaida is Venezuela’s recognized president, not Maduro.
As the people of Venezuela are swept away, Guaid’s ambassador to London called it a “victory for the Venezuelan people” that they are being deprived of much-needed financial resources. “More than ever, Venezuela is reliant on its gold reserves.” The value vest knows this, and guaida knows that too, at the instigation of which the payment was refused. So these are the values of the value vest that he pedds all over the world.
This verdict from London “could give him new oxygen, observers suspect, also with regard to possible negotiations between the opposition and Maduro, because Guaid’s position towards Maduro is also weakened within the opposition.”
The fact that he refuses to provide the necessary help to the people of Venezuela for the sake of his own political advantage and the interests of the United States and the vest of values will certainly not be hidden there and will not be without any effect on its reputation and popularity in the country. The question arises as to how he and the opposition intend to win the december election under such conditions.
Despite the signs to the contrary, opinion-makers in the West are trying to give the impression that the opposition is united. This unity should be expressed in a rejection of the participation in the elections. Participating in them “would be tantamount to legitimizing the regime, large parts of the opposition agree,” while claiming that Maduro “has virtually lost all popular support.”
This had already been made known to media consumers in the West at the beginning of 2019, when the conqueror of Maduro had been launched and put on the shield with Guaida. At that time, people were too happy to be blinded by their own desires and did not want to see the real conditions. Obviously, nothing has been learned in the decision-making storms of the value system. Because then as now, you believe what you want to believe and ignore what doesn’t fit into this picture.
For despite all the sanctions, coup attempts and attempted mercenary invasions, the people have not turned away from Maduro and turned to Guaidi, as it should be according to the socio-scientific theories, the wishful thinking of the opinion-makers and the prophecies of the politicians and so-called experts in the West.
Even if the vest of values withholds Venezuela’s gold, impoverishes the population more and more, oil production has fallen to the level of the 1930s, which, according to the opinion-makers, would inevitably lead to the end of the regime, the reality is different. But the so-called experts in the value vest do not understand this reality.
This reality is the Colectivos, comparable to the Neighbourhood Committees in China. They are the support and protector of the social order, not the parliaments and the other ivory towers in which Western opinion-makers believe that politics is being made. They provide for the people at the grassroots of society and provide for the cohesion that the torn societies of the Vest of Values can only understand as an expression of an authoritarian regime. The idea behind this is a political consciousness that is alien to their own thinking.
If the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung tried to portray the opposition in Venezuela as united as recently as July, it shows a different picture in September. “The opposition is divided. Guaida wants to boycott the election. … By contrast, Capriles intends to negotiate and run for election better.” He publicly distinguishes himself from Guaidé: “Either you are a government or an opposition, neither is possible. … Capriles said what many in Venezuela have been thinking for a long time.”
Guaido seems to have lost its luster – at least in Venezuela. “For a long time, Guaida had succeeded in preserving the impression of unity and presenting himself as a leader. But his charisma … has faded in recent months – and with it his authority has diminished”.
Fair elections undesirable
But despite all this, the US still seems to be behind Guaida. He is the man for their plans, they don’t have another. However, they too seem to have doubts about his electoral success, as they are making appropriate preparations in the event of defeat. Even now, opinion-makers in the vest of values are spreading doubts about the legitimacy of the elections that have not yet taken place
For them, it is already clear: “There is nothing to suggest that this election could be free and fair – the opposite is likely.” Even “the immediate pardon of more than a hundred accused, convicted and imprisoned opponents of the regime” does not change the propaganda of the Western media. While the imprisonment of opponents of the regime has so far been a sign of the regime’s brutality, its release is now a sign of its insidiousness. Maduro wants to divide the opposition, according to the newly circulated view.
But even this release, previously demanded by the Western media, “is no guarantee of a fair election. … this requires more, for example, a large-scale international observer mission”. However, in early September, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza gave comprehensive guarantees for the election to THE EU’s foreign affairs envoy Josep Borell and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, inviting both the UN and the EU to “send observers to Venezuela for the election.”
So, although Venezuela wanted to meet these demands of the vest of values in order to verify the outcome of the elections, Borrell rejected Venezuela’s offer, which had been demanded a short time earlier. All of a like, Borrell believes that “the conditions for sending an observer mission are not in place.” But what do you want in Brussels? Do you want the enthronement of your own favorite Guaida without prior choice?
The question is whether Maduro’s opponents are even concerned with the elections and their correct conduct? After all, the result would have to be acknowledged even if it does not correspond to the ideas of the value system. However, this also removed the grounds for further sanctions, or it would be much more difficult to explain their continuation and justify the misery they cause in the Venezuelan population.
The elections of recent years in the various states and regions of the world have made it increasingly clear that elections are fair and recognised in the eyes of the west of values only if they produce the results that serve his interests. Thus, the elections in Catalonia, Bolivia, Belarus, Hong Kong and many others were not recognised, while the electoral fraud in Afghanistan, Mali and others was tacitly tolerated.
Little in hand
This is likely to be the question of the election result in Venezuela. Whether or not the allegations of electoral fraud made are true will probably not play a role in Venezuela as it did recently in Belarus, even though the electoral fraud has never been proven. In Venezuela, too, there is already a fear that the truth will fall by the wayside if it does not fit the dominion sours in Washington and Brussels.
But even so, the vest of values is unlikely to come closer to its goal of overthrowing Maduro. Nor has the constant twisting of the sanctions screw brought Maduro to his knees, nor has the people rebelled against him. The opposition in the country is more divided precisely by the clumsy and full-bodied appearance of the former superstar Guaida and thus increasingly put on the defensive. At the moment, there is no one who could seriously endanger Maduro.
For Washington, the possibilities are becoming less and less to achieve its goal of regime change in Venezuela. Moreover, the US is significantly weakened and limited in its ability to act by its own internal conflicts and the paralysis of the economy itself. Corona has the economy in stranglehold, and the elections at home are widening the rift in American society.
Although US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited mainly Venezuela’s neighbors Colombia, Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname during his trip to South America at the end of September to raise the mood against Maduro, it is unlikely that these states will be persuaded to go to war for US interests. That hadn’t worked out in 2019. At the moment, Corona and the resulting economic decline are dealing with very different problems.
How helpless and powerless the United States seems to be in the face of this situation is clear from the choice of means. The planned mercenary operation was a huge disaster and has also damaged the US military reputation. Now we are shifting to the usual propaganda against the Maduro regime, accusing it of disregarding human rights, which is nothing new and should not bring about a great international mobilisation.
What remains are the modern forms of destabilization through the instrumentalization of the facebook generation. Campaigns, initiated by political forces whose background and funding are often opaque, are increasingly driving young, intellectual and predominantly morally driven people onto the streets for ideals that seem to correspond to those of the vest of values.
In this way, they engage with forces that only follow these values in their own sphere of domination as long as they use their own interests. This approach could also apply in the case of Venezuela. The propagandistic foundations have been laid. Doubts are already being sown about the legality of the election result.
What is missing is only the implementation via the so-called social media. There is no indication of such plans at the moment. The case of Belarus, however, has shown how quickly such a concept can be implemented when preparations have already been made and there is a corresponding potential for mobilizable people. But that will be shown by further developments.
Venezuela continues to suffer from sanctions and the economic war waged against the country by the West of Values, but it does not seem to be breaking through. The plight of the population does not matter to the idealists in the West when it comes to higher things. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright also believed that the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children as a cost from Western sanctions were worth the price. It wasn’t their own children.
Increasingly, however, Venezuela is coming to the aid of other sanctioned people, as well as Russia and China. They all have economic interests. This cannot be condemned, because Venezuela itself, not to mention the vest of values, has it, even if it so often gives itself selflessly and is always committed only to Western ideals and values.
But the needy in Venezuela, Syria, and all the other countries in the world that suffer from Western sanctions know what to think of these ideals and values. That is why the US and the West are losing more and more influence, while russia and China are growing globally.
Without countable success, but with even more countable debt, Western states must withdraw from Afghanistan. The Middle East and the center of Africa are increasingly slipping out of their control. And in the centre of Asia, they have had nothing to say for a long time. There, the work of China and Russia in the development along the Silk Road shows unmistakable successes.